• Tue. Nov 28th, 2023

    Investors Look to Dutch Election for Policy Clarity

    ByJames Forsyth

    Nov 21, 2023
    Investors Look to Dutch Election for Policy Clarity

    Investors eagerly await the outcome of the upcoming Dutch election, as it is expected to bring clarity to various policy issues affecting banks, technology firms, real estate, and airlines. The collapse of Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s government in July has left these issues uncertain, and the formation of the next coalition will determine their resolution.

    One significant issue under scrutiny is the Dutch government’s role in supporting US efforts to restrict exports of cutting-edge technology to China. This has had an impact on ASML Holding NV, Europe’s most valuable tech company. The stance of the new Dutch government on this matter will be crucial in determining ASML’s future.

    Another important consideration is the restrictive aviation policy that threatens the Dutch arm of Air France-KLM. Additionally, banks such as ING Groep NV and ABN Amro Bank NV are concerned about potential tax increases and a levy on share buybacks proposed by the lower house of parliament.

    The election will also shed light on tax breaks for expatriates and other policies that attract skilled workers to the Netherlands. This will have implications for companies operating in the country.

    Despite the uncertainty, the Dutch stock market has performed well this year, with the AEX index rising by about 10%. Tech shares have been a driving force behind this growth.

    In conclusion, the Dutch election holds significant implications for various industries in the country. Investors are eagerly watching to see how the new government will address these policy issues and provide clarity for businesses operating in the Netherlands.


    1. What are the key policy issues affecting the Dutch election?

    The key policy issues include the Dutch government’s stance on supporting US efforts to restrict technology exports to China, restrictive aviation policies, taxes on banks, and expatriate tax breaks.

    2. How has the Dutch stock market performed amid the uncertainty?

    The AEX index, which represents the 25 largest stocks listed on the Euronext Amsterdam, has risen by about 10% this year, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600.

    3. How might the election outcome impact technology companies?

    The election outcome could impact technology companies through policies related to tax relief for expatriates and restrictions on technology exports to China. Companies such as ASML, BE Semiconductor Industries NV, and Adyen NV could be affected.

    4. What are the implications for the real estate market?

    New rent regulations and increases in property transfer tax have created uncertainty in the Dutch real estate market. This could have consequences for investors and companies operating in the sector.

    5. How might the election impact the international talent pool in the Netherlands?

    Proposals to control the influx of international students and prioritize the Dutch language of instruction at universities could potentially shrink the international talent pool, particularly for tech jobs. The outcome of the election will determine if these proposals become law.